Your Financial Journey: 2024 Market Outlook

Did anyone really expect technology stocks to rise by 57 percent in 2023? Can it happen again? What about inflation and interest rates - will they hold at levels Americans can live with in 2024 and beyond? These are just a few of the issues Tom Clifford, Brian Granato and Doug DeGroot discuss in this Your FinancialJourney podcast as we recap 2023 and share our thoughts on the year ahead.

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- [Announcer] What can you expect from an experienced financial advisor? Are all advisors alike? And will the right advisor really make a positive difference?"Your Financial Journey" is a podcast, brought to you by Providence Wealth Advisors, LLC, a wholly-owned affiliate of Providence Bank & Trust. In this series, members of the PWA team discuss the importance of planning, relevant developments, and investment strategies geared to help you achieve your wealth management goals, and to provide you with experience, guidance, and support every step of the way.(gentle music)- [Doug] Welcome, I am Doug DeGroot from Providence Wealth Advisors. On this podcast, we're gonna discuss our thoughts on what to expect in the markets, as well as other economic issues for 2024. I have with me today Brian Granato and Tom Clifford, who are also with Providence Wealth Advisors and the Providence Bank Trust Department. Welcome, guys.- [Brian] Thanks, Doug.- [Tom] Thanks, Doug.- [Doug] Glad you're here. So before the three of us share some thoughts on what to expect in 2024, I thought we would briefly touch on how we ended 2023. So when reviewing our notes from last year, we noted that we were cautiously optimistic on 2023, although we noted that we were still dealing with inflation issues and rising interest rates from levels that we hadn't seen in many years. So with that said, here's how we finished the year. The Dow Jones Industrial average was up 16.18%, S&P up a little over 26%, Nasdaq, a little over 44%. Emerging markets, about a 10% increase. The Bank of America 5-year treasury index up 3.71%. The Bank of America 10-year treasury index up 2.81%. The Bank of America, 7 to 12 year muni-index up 5.46%. So I know it's hard to grasp the numbers on a podcast, but overall, a very positive year. So in going back two years, many of you will remember 2022 was a disaster for all market sectors. And that was for both equities and bonds. But if you held your positions, your portfolio recovered the losses of 2022 with the gains I just referenced in 2023. So the best equity sectors for 2023, technology was up 57%, followed by the communications sector at 55%. So all sectors were up other than energy and utilities, which ironically is a twist on what happened in 2022 from the best growth and worst sectors. So, and to continue that twist, during 2022, value outpaced growth with 2023 growth outpacing value. So value would be more traditional companies and typically ones that have a dividend income stream attached to them, such as Eli Lilly or Bristol Myers Squibb, unlike a pure growth company, such as Netflix, Microsoft, or Amazon. And before I close out the topic of 2023, I would like to note in reviewing our podcast from last year, I believe I was the closest in my prediction to the indexes and what happened last year, between the three of us.- [Brian] (hums) Well, good for you, Doug.- [Doug] (laughs) So we all expected interest rates to be higher. I was the closest with that move. We were all way under target on the equity side, especially those large gains in the NASDAQ, like I said, up 44%.- [Brian] Come on, that's ridiculous.- [Doug] I mean, who would've expected that?- Nobody.- Nobody. So with all that said, let's move on to 2024. So today, the three of us thought we would offer some insights on a few key issues, that being inflation and how that relates to interest rates, equities or stocks, and finally some world political thoughts as these events continue to affect the economic areas that we try to navigate. So Brian and Tom, here we go. Let's start off on our first topic, which is inflation and what that might mean for the future of interest rates. Brian, I'll throw it over to you right out of the gate. What do you think here?- [Brian] Okay, well, thanks Doug. I think the hard part of the inflation fight now looks over, I would say we'd probably all agree on that. Heaviest blows from monetary and fiscal tightening are well behind us. And just a reminder to everybody, monetary policy effects typically are felt with a lag. So what was done in the past year and a half are starting to come to fruition now. So supply chain bottlenecks are mostly in the rear view mirror. We know everybody's talking about the restructuring of that, the global supply chain, but that certainly will take some time. Maybe economic growth decelerates in 2024 as the effects of this monetary policy take a broader toll with the U.S. consumer possibly beginning to bend versus break, I think.- [Doug] Yep, you're starting to hear some talk of that now, starting to happen.- Yeah, yeah. But you see, you walk into a restaurant, Doug, and my gosh, every table's full-- Still full.- And there's surf and turf for everybody. So I just don't get it.- Yep, it's amazing. And that's not good for inflation, as you know, so.- [Brian] No, not at all, not at all.- [Doug] How about you, Tom? What do you think on the inflation side?- [Tom] Well, I would tend to agree with that, what Brian was discussing. I looked at 2023 inflation rates at right around that little better than 4%. And going back into 2022, it was actually at 9.6%, roughly. So I could see that we could be somewhere around 2% to 2.5% in 2024. I think that's where the Fed is kind of expecting it as well.- [Doug] I would agree, and I do think, and I agree with you, inflation's slowing and I think for our listeners, the easiest thing to me is just look at what's happened to gas prices, and you see them come down, which I think is a positive. A lot of these COVID programs are ending or ended already now, so that was inflationary, as we know. So whenever you print money that creates inflation. So that's stopped. I am a little concerned about the labor market, but maybe that's cracking.- [Brian] Yeah, I think you see some hair lines going there too, a little bit slow down on that from the corporation side, I would agree.- [Doug] Whenever you see increased participation in labor as far as costs involved in that labor, that's inflationary, of course. So if it cracks, that would be beneficial and slow that down.- [Tom] I totally agree with that. And Doug, you mentioned something about some of the stimulus related to the COVID. I was reading that the consumer spending will probably be starting to slow because a lot of that pandemic savings are... They're dwindling. Household debt has picked up a little bit. It's just something to keep an eye on, I think.- [Doug] Tom, that's a great point, and I've read a lot about that. I do think that's happening. So, and that comes back to Brian's point, the consumers maybe starting to bend a little bit because some of that savings that built up over COVID is dissipating.- Yep, right.- For sure.- [Doug] So I think we're on the same page. We all see inflation kind of slowing, which could be beneficial. And that's a great segue into our interest rate topic. The Fed's raise rates to fight inflation. So if inflation is slowing, can they reduce rates in 2024? So the Fed's indicated that they could see three cuts in 2024. The bond market, I think, is actually priced in as of today, six interest rate cuts for the year. And I'll be honest, I go at times thinking there can be no rate cuts, and Brian, I come back to your point. I see restaurants full and you still see the strong labor market. So think the economy's still fairly strong. So I guess time will tell, but the markets are pricing in some interest rate cuts. So let's move to this topic of rates for 2024. Inflation is certainly one of the issues affecting rates. The 10-year treasury, just for some historical perspective, had to yield at one point under 1% during what I would call the COVID economy. As we entered 2022, the 10-year treasury bond was at 1.85%. Today, the 10-year treasury is bouncing around 4%, but during 2023, so during last year, it actually had pushed to 5% a couple times and then kind of backed off from there. So as many of our listeners may remember, we had the worst bond market returns of the last 40 years during 2022 as the Fed hiked rates aggressively during the year to combat the inflationary pressures that Tom and Brian and I just talked about. So that got a little better during 2023, again, as inflation became subdued. And actually some of the returns in the bond market were positive for the year. So let's talk about our thoughts on rates for the year. And Tom, I'll lead off with you on this segment. What are some things you're focusing in on, as far as rates for 2024?- [Tom] Sure, Doug. You mentioned a little bit about the market pricing in rate cuts, I believe it definitely has done that. I'm not quite sure, I think, that we're gonna see six rate cuts, but right now I'm kind of thinking maybe three to four rate cuts at 25 basis points at a pop, which would bring the Fed rate down to about 4% to 4.25% somewhere in that neighborhood.- [Doug] And that rate is in the low fives now, just for our listeners. That's short term... Call it the short term cost of money or the short term yield. So, go ahead, didn't mean to interrupt.- [Tom] And that's okay, it's quite all right. And I also think that when these rate cuts start, probably wouldn't be until the second half of 2024. So I think we'll see a speed up of rate cuts the last six months of the year.- [Brian] Yeah, I would agree, Tom, I'd even say fourth quarter, that's my 2 cents. I'd say maybe, possibly... And even dovetailing to Doug's comment, maybe not at all, who knows?- [Doug] Certainly not in March, like some people are anticipating.- No, absolutely not.- [Doug] I think we're all in agreement there. There are not gonna be any rate cut at that meeting. So Brian, any thoughts from you, or?- [Brian] I'm just gonna take one quick step back for a little definition of a recession. I know everybody hears it out there.- [Doug] Well, that's a great point, so yeah.- [Brian] What does that really mean? So a recession is what happens when the economy shrinks. So during a recession, there's a significant decline in economic activity across the board. This could last anywhere from a few months to several years. And when they determine if a recession has occurred, there's a variety of factors involved, which are considered including GDP, employment, consumer spending, retail sales, et cetera. But generally, it is identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. That's really the true definition of that.- [Doug] And we've been, I think, at least the three of us and our team, and as well as the markets, have been waiting for this recession to come for about two years now.- [Brian] Right.- [Doug] And it's-- [Tom] It hasn't reared its head yet. I mean, really.- It just hasn't happened. Again, like we talked, the economy continues to be fairly strong, at least it appears to be.- [Brian] They say mild recession, do you think that's gonna happen?- [Doug] I don't know, Brian. Again, it seems to me things are fairly strong and I would lean towards the side, and we'll get to that of, I just agree with Tom's point, I'm not sure I see certainly six rate cuts.- [Brian] No, That I agree with it.- [Doug] It just seems a stretch. And that comes back to my, a thought that I've had, and the three of us have talked about this in the past. We've basically been in a bond bull market for about 40 years up until two years ago. And what does that mean for our listeners? Interest rates have fallen for 40 years. There's been little blips here and there, but interest rates basically came down from, call it 20%, to zero. And now, and again, as we talked, the three of us talked, that created some inflationary pressures. Free money does that. So the Fed was real aggressive in this campaign to raise rates almost 500 basis points in a year, which was catastrophic in the bond market. And it's worked, they've slowed inflation. It's hard for me to think that the Fed would abandon that-- No way.- In a year. (laughs)- [Brian] There's no way. They're gonna make sure it's tamped out-- I would think so.- Before they move forward, I would agree.- [Doug] So could something happen economically that things drastically slow and cause the Fed to again, begin to reduce rates? Maybe, but I don't know if I see just this, as Tom said, the six rate cuts today. The other thing we hear a lot about, and I'd be remiss to not raise the topic, is the government debt, which we talk about, every... I'm sure our listeners have heard this as well, it's $30 trillion out there, give or take a little bit north of that. Now we're running deficits annually of $2 trillion, I think this year. And at some point, it hasn't affected rates yet, but for our listeners, when the government issues that debt, they're basically pulling money out of the economy to fund their deficits. At some point, that has to cause higher rates, is my common sense.- [Brian] Right.- [Doug] It can't go on forever, I wouldn't think- I would agree.- True, right.- [Doug] Yeah ,so I know that we're trying to keep a watch on that, it's hard to gauge. It has not mattered, just so you know, as of yet, the Fed's been able to keep everything's under control, but at some point it may. So with all that said, I think we're kind of on the same page. Inflation's being subdued, Fed's done their job, rates have pulled back. Like I said, we were at 5% on the 10-year, now we're at 4%, so things seem to be doing better from the rate side. I'm gonna put you guys on the spot and make my notes for next year. Brian, I'll start with you. Where do you see the 10-year, which is trading about 4% today? Where do you see that ending the year?- [Brian] I'd say 4.25%.- [Doug] 4.25%, okay.- [Brian] So I know you're using a pencil for your numbers, so you could erase that,(Doug laughing) but I'm putting mine in ink, 4.25%, so.- [Doug] 4.25% for Brian, okay.- [Tom] For the 10-year?- [Brian] For the 10-year.- [Tom] I'm gonna go a little bit lower. I'm gonna go with about 3.85%.- [Brian] Okay, little lower.- [Tom] I do have a question for the two of you. As we talk a little bit about interest rates, what are your thoughts how that would affect mortgage rates? Periodically we may get questions from some of our clientele. I was looking at some possible numbers that could look like somewhere in the neighborhood of about 6% in by the end of year 2024 and maybe into the high fours in 2025-- For 30-year mortgage.- For 30-year mortgage.- [Brian] I don't know, Tom, I don't think that's... I think that's reasonable, and quite honestly, I think back in the day, that was a normal rate.- [Doug] Yeah, if you see... If you're right on the 10-year, Tom, at that 3.85%, the 30 years bouncing around high six's to seven now, so that'd be, call it half a basis... 50 basis points off off the 10-year, I could see that translating into a 6% mortgage, that seems about right. Interestingly enough, ironically, today we're doing the day of this podcast, rates are up this past week and yet mortgage activity's up. I saw that, so you're... And I don't know if that's the start of the spring shopping season for homes, I don't know, but I think that's a great question.- [Brian] Yeah, it is.- [Doug] I'm gonna to culminate our discussion on the 10-year and go with 3.75%. I'm gonna do a "Price is Right."- Oh, he's really-- Strategy.- [Doug] What do you think of that, Brian?- [Brian] I don't know. He's a combo with the-- I noticed that he always waits for us to give our-- Yeah, it's typical Bob Barker attitude there.- [Tom] He's got that down.- [Doug] But that seems... I think you're gonna see a slight bias downward. And if we're right, again, not aggressive rate cuts,'cause if the market's right at six rate cuts, that would be substantially... We're all too high.- [Brian] Yeah, we're all way off.- [Doug] So we're, as our listeners can tell, kinda leaning in the camp that, eh, you're gonna see some reduction, but not this aggressive reduction that everyone's anticipating. Okay, with that said, let's transition to equities or stocks. The first few weeks of 2024 have been extremely volatile. Which would be expected given this interest rate volatility that we've seen,'cause again, this 10-year treasury, everything's kind of priced off that, and there's been a lot of volatility with that the first couple weeks of the year. Ironically, that is similar how the markets started in early 2023. So as great as the returns were in the markets last year, we should really note before we begin this discussion that for the most part, equities were flat going into the fourth quarter. So if you look at the S&P 500, most stocks were flat for the first three quarters. The averages, however, were being held up at times by a few stocks, which are now being called the Magnificent Seven, which basically includes seven technology stocks. And they're out there, if our listeners wanna Google it, but they're Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia. Now in the fourth quarter, when the Fed kind of indicated that they're at the end of this rate hiking cycle, not again that they're gonna... The market's pricing in these cuts, but the Fed's not necessarily saying we're gonna have six cuts, but the market kind of prices ahead and then equities just took off,'cause equities like lower interest rates. And we've had this huge rally that started in, call it November one of last year, 2023, and has continued through today, we're now at record highs on both the Dow and S&P 500. So with that said, guys, Brian, I'll throw this one back to you. What are your thoughts how the equity market fares during the year?- [Brian] Yeah, I think I would expect increased volatility, Doug, especially as we enter into this election year. So I think this rally that we see now, it really should continue to broaden out as some of these other sectors that have beaten and been beaten down over the past number of months play a little catch up. And just circling back to your point on rates, just like individuals, companies don't like stagnant or higher interest rates. The cost of doing business increases, which squeezes margins than corporate profits, and ultimately leading to possibly a lower valuations for the stock. So it could be a little... I don't think it's gonna be peaches and cream this year.- [Doug] Yeah, well, on your last point, I definitely agree. I mean, equities are driven by rates, and just as we said, as rates pulled back during that fourth quarter of last year, that's what drove equities higher. Oh, certainly one of the factors, and big factors. So I agree with you on that. Tom, how about you?- [Tom] Well, Doug, you mentioned a little bit about the magnificent seven, where they were definitely the leaders in 2023. I don't see that happening for the same seven into 2024. And speaking of that seven, they represented 75% of the total market gains in 2023. And again, to your point, Doug, it was primarily in the fourth quarter, even later than that, most of it happening there. So I do think there might be a little bit of a push towards small cap stocks. I still think we have some room to grow there.- [Doug] You would think so. And I think, coming back to your point, Tom, and I know it's hard to get lost in numbers on a podcast, but Amazon last year was up 80% Apple up 50%, Microsoft up 60%. So you can see just by those returns how they... And they're all large cap stocks that kind of dominate the indexes. So you get those kind of returns and it just drives everything up.- [Tom] Correct.- [Doug] And our opinion, I think, coming back to Tom's point is at some point the rest of the market has to play catch up. You would think.- You'd think.- [Doug] These stocks can't driving higher, but ironically, through the first couple weeks of the year, that's exactly what's still going.- [Tom] It's still working that way.- [Doug] They keep moving. And not that the rest of the market isn't moving, but-- [Tom] Not to the extent as the tech is, that's the issue.- [Doug] As we know, the chip stocks, the day we're doing this podcast, are kind of up 5%, 6%, today,- [Tom] Today.- [Doug] Alone, just by themselves. And these large chip stocks that are part of that index. So, and certainly corporate profits will play a factor into what equity markets do for the year, as well, because stocks are priced off how profits are being earned by companies. So again, do we go into a recession, as Brian talked about earlier, that would slow down corporate profits and in turn potentially drive stock prices lower. But I think for our group, we're fairly optimistic, but cautiously optimistic depending on rates and a couple other things that we're gonna talk about here in a minute. But I think barring something unexpected, we don't see a massive collapse in the equity markets. So I'm gonna put you guys on the spot again, Tom, I'll start with you, I'll go last again.(Tom and Brian laughing)- [Tom] There you go.- [Doug] The Dow, as we sit today on our podcast, is at 38,000, which is a record, again, today we're up a little bit and setting a new record. The S&P 500, about 4,900. So based on our projection for rates and profits, et cetera, where do you see the equity markets finishing the year, Tom?- [Tom] I'm going to say the S&P at about 5,100.- [Doug] Okay.- [Tom] And the Dow at about 40,008.- Okay.- Whoa.- [Tom] Not 48,000-- No, 40,008.- 40,008.- [Brian] Okay, see, you're really getting specific. I like to bracket my numbers, it gives me a little room to breathe, Doug, especially with that invisible link you got going here. So I'm close to Tom on the S&P, I'd go 5,200, but on the Dow I'd go 38,000 to 39,000. So where we're at today, plus a little bit more. I don't see much more-- [Doug] So you think we're we're nearing a peak, then, in the Dow?- Yeah, 'cause I think... Possibly, yeah.- Okay, all right.- [Brian] I'm sure I'm way off, but let's see. We'll talk in 12 months, but I think we'll see.(Tom laughing)- [Doug] Well I'm gonna let you have the low end, then,'cause I'm more in favor of Tom. I think you're gonna see a continued bias higher, albeit volatility throughout the year. But I think you're gonna see 41,000, give or take-- 41?- [Doug] On the Dow, I do.- [Tom] Well, especially if we're thinking interest rates, if we get those cuts.- [Doug] If we, yeah. And I don't think it will take six, Tom, to get us there.- I would agree.- I think if you start to see some cuts. And I think Tom is actually right on. I agree, I had my notes, I was thinking 5,100, which again, a Dow of 41,000, to me, the way I was thinking of it, you've had a nice move with the first couple weeks, but that's another 5% move for the rest of the year, which is a healthy year. We've had a 2% move, so that's 7%, that's kind of historical norms. That's where I came up with mine. But for the sake of this contest, Tom said 5,100 on the S&P, so I'm gonna say 5,101.- [Tom] Okay, Drew Carey number two.(Doug and Brian laughing) Wow.- [Doug] So now, let's just talk about a couple issues, because... And really they're what I'd call political world type issues as well. And there's some potential for market reactions that could cause this potential future volatility in either market, the bond or the stock market. And again, that could be higher or lower it on either of those indexes, just depends on what happens. Let's start off with, and I think Brian, you actually raised this point as we began the podcast, but it's a presidential election year and that is gonna present a little bit of uncertainty and markets do not like uncertainty. That's really the key. So we have, at least as of today, it would appear we're headed towards a race similar to what we've had in about four years ago, that being our current President Biden facing our former President Trump. So Tom, I'll throw it over to you. You see any potential or any kind of thoughts as to how that could play out and what it might mean for the markets?- [Tom] A lot of uncertainty. It's such a broad spectrum between what we're faced with going into the election with the candidates, what the American public are thinking and in terms of who they will follow, who they jump on board with. Without getting too political with individual preferences, I think it's gonna be a pretty choppy November.- [Doug] Yeah. (laughs) It's kind of the race nobody wanted, it seems, according to the poll numbers, and here we are. So, and I agree with your comments, nobody likes uncertainty. And perhaps the greatest certainty, assuming those are our two candidates, could be in their vice presidential choice. And because both potential candidates are older, there's potential that you could see some transition to their vice president at some point during their term. Brian, how about you on that topic?- [Brian] I think geopolitical risks will remain on top of mind for most people to... You still have a lot of of uncertainty out there, Middle East, Russia. Shipping lanes out there in Middle East, how much stress that can be to the West. Israel, Russia, how long is that war? Is it gonna continue on another year, two years, six months? Who knows?- [Doug] Yeah, that, we have three... Well let me say we have two for sure conflicts going on as we do our podcast. Of course, Russia and Ukraine, as you referenced, that's still happening. It has not affected our markets or our economy as of yet, but it certainly has the potential to. Mideast is a new one, and that's where you're getting those potential shipping lanes, and which hasn't been priced into the markets. So potential oil shock, I mean we kind of seem to be ignoring that, and oil's been stable in this $70 a barrel range, but boy at some point, that that could move significantly higher depending on how that plays out. And then the third one being China and Taiwan and how that affects things. And the key about Taiwan economically, to me, is, regardless of the shipping issues, which there are, but they're a huge technology-- Chips.- Generator for our economy in the form of chips, semiconductor chips, so yeah, any of those could drastically affect our markets negatively. And by the way, come back to your point positively, then let's say there's some resolution to any one of these Russia, Ukraine, the Mid East and China and Taiwan, it could be very positive. But how about you, Tom, on that front? Anything to note?- [Tom] No, not really. Pretty much well said by the two of you guys.- [Doug] All right, yeah, so certainly something to watch those, I'll call them four flashpoints. Our election, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, and the Mideast now, along with whatever else might occur during the world, but those type of events can affect our economy for a variety of reasons. So with that said, Brian, let me start for you. Any final thoughts as we get close to concluding this podcast?- I think we've covered a lot of bases here, and I think we've... What we've talked about is probably a good recap of how we think things are gonna be going forward in 2024. So I think keep your portfolios diversified, be ready, don't be emotional with your portfolios, just kind of stay the course and hopefully you'll see better returns over the long term, so.- [Doug] Long term is a good point. Tom, how about you?- [Tom] Well said, Brian. Yeah, I do... I am optimistic about 2024. I do think there's some decent value out there and we're gonna see some positive returns in the market. Again, I don't think they're gonna be as robust as some people might like, but I still think it's gonna be a positive 2024.- [Doug] Like we talked, and you're and my forecast are very similar, Tom, but you get a 7% increase, that's very respectable, there's nothing wrong with that if you can do that every year, in my opinion, anyway. So with that said, as we conclude, these are our thoughts for 2024. And as in every year, it'll be interesting to see how things evolve and change during the year. We would culminate, as Tom and Brian and I said, that overall our group feels cautiously optimistic for 2024. But again, as we noted, there remains some issues that we're dealing with that we've not had to deal with in past years. And some of these potential unforeseen, call them political world events, could affect our markets and economy. We do continue to feel inflation is falling and that alone could be a positive catalyst for both the bond and stock markets. So we wish you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2024. In closing, be sure to subscribe to Your Financial Journey on either Apple Podcast or Spotify. Please call Brian, Tom, or me or any of the Providence Wealth Advisors staff with questions you might have. Thanks for listening and thanks, Tom and Brian.- Thanks, Doug.- Thanks, Doug.- [Announcer] Providence Wealth Advisors, LLC, or PWA, is a wholly-owned affiliate of Providence Bank & Trust, or PB&T. 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